Table 3:

Numbers of UK high-level consumers of game from the shooting community calculated to be at potential risk

of incurring threshold health or function effects from ingestion of

ammunition-derived lead from gamebirds under various assumptions about game meal size and bioavailability of lead from ammunition

Small meal size

Large meal size

High bioavailability

Low bioavailability

High bioavailability

Low bioavailability

Health/function

outcome

Critical

response

Age class

No. high-

level

consumers

Meal

size

(g)

No.

affected

95% C.L.

No.

affected

95% C.L.

Meal

size

(g)

No.

affected

95% C.L.

No.

affected

95% C.L.

Deficit of 1

IQ point*

Children

<8 years

9000

5124

4382 -

5602

3800

3053 -

4374

118

>9000

>9000 -

>9000

>9000 -

>9000

SATs writing

score

Deficit of

0.04 score

point

Children

<8 years

9000

>9000

->9000

8040

7668 -

8328

100

>9000

>9000 -

>9000

>9000 -

>9000

Spontaneous

abortion rate

Increase in

risk by 1%

Women

18-45

years

10154

100

886

312 - 1245 0

0 - 0

200

2267

1601 -

2800

926

476 - 1313

Chronic kidney

disease Model 1

Increase

in risk by

10%*

Adults >18

years

44500

100

18052

14498 -

2085

4561

2634 -

6434

200

28361

24739 -

30825

19402

15671 -

22091

Chronic kidney

disease Model 2

Increase

in risk by

10%*

Adults >18

years

44500

100

0 - 0

200

4314

2381 -

6110

438

185 - 744

Systolic blood

pressure

Increase by

1.2 mmHg*

Adults >18

years

44500

100

578

248 - 969 0

0 - 0

200

6479

4139 -

8589

3962

1716 - 5601

Critical responses marked * are Bench Mark Responses (BMR) defined by EFSA (2010). Two models for calculating the BMR for kidney disease were used: Model 1 is that used by EFSA (2010) and Model 2 is that proposed by Green and Pain

(2012) to allow for confounding variables. Numbers of high-level consumers are the mid-points of the ranges for children and adults from the shooting community estimated by a BASC/CA survey (LAG 2014) to eat at least one game meal

per day throughout the year. The number of women at potential risk of spontaneous abortion is the number of child-bearing age obtained by multiplying the BASC/CA adult total by the proportion of adults in the 2013 UK population who

are women in the age range 18-45 years. Small meal sizes are from FSA (2007) and large meal sizes from Green and Pain (2012) (children) and EFSA (2010) (adults).

Rhys E. Green & Deborah J. Pain