38
diet, in IQ, systolic blood pressure and chronic kidney disease.
As described above, these health effects were considered in the
opinion of the EFSA CONTAM Panel (EFSA 2010) to be significant
at a population level. Green and Pain (2012) also used the
same approach to evaluate potential effects of consumption
of gamebird meat on SAT scores and in rates of spontaneous
abortion, which were not assigned BMRs by EFSA.
The results indicated the potential for the consumption of 40
- 70 g of gamebird meat per week to be associated with a 1
point decrease in the IQ of children, the BMR identified by EFSA
(2010), with the two values being for Green and Pain’s regression
estimate of bioavailability and the standard bioavailability
values as used in IUEBKwin.
For the present study, we estimated a potential risk of change in
children’s SATs writing tests scores equivalent to the EFSA BMR
for IQ in children (see above) for those that consume 12.7 to 20.4
g of gamebird meals per week. Amounts of game that adults
would need to consume to be at potential risk from an arbitrary
1% increased risk of spontaneous abortion (women), and from
the EFSA BMRs for chronic kidney disease and systolic blood
pressure are presented in Table 2.
Table 2:Numbers of people in the UK calculated to be at potential risk of incurring threshold health or function effects of ammunition-
derived lead from gamebirds assuming two values of the bioavailability of lead from ammunition and consistent rates of consumption of
gamebird meals throughout the year.
High bioavailability Low bioavailability
Health/function
outcome
Critical
response
Age class Threshold
intake rate
g/week
No.
affected
95% C.L. Threshold
intake rate
g/week
No.
affected
95% C.L.
IQ Deficit of 1
IQ point*
Children
< 8 years
40 38126 16704 -
63012
70 28710 12684 -
47846
SATs writing
score
Deficit of
0.04 score
point
Children
< 8 years
12.7 47926 20072 -
79495
20.4 45427 19346 -
75507
Spontaneous
abortion rate
Increase in
risk by 1%
Women
18-45 years
560 10977 5432 -
17157
920 3505 1333 -
6259
Chronic kidney
disease
Model 1
Increase
in risk by
10%*
Adults
> 18 years
240 235898 151954 -
319277
380 112158 64637 -
162612
Chronic kidney
disease
Model 2
Increase
in risk by
10%*
Adults
> 18 years
800 23713 9920 -
40652
1300 6749 2045 -
13965
Systolic blood
pressure
Increase by
1.2 mmHg*
Adults
> 18 years
640 39584 18369 -
64640
1040 12320 4342 -
23273
Critical responses marked * are Bench Mark Responses (BMR) defined by EFSA (2010). Two models for calculating the BMR for kidney disease were used: Model 1 is that
used by EFSA(2010) and Model 2 is that proposed by Green and Pain (2012) to allow for confounding variables.
Rhys E. Green & Deborah J. Pain